I'm not that excited about the Oscars this year. Maybe it's that we're not throwing a viewing party (it'd be all Indian food and Twinkies, anyway), since we won't be moving till a few weeks after the Oscars. We were invited to what looks like a lovely party, but can't take the kids to it, so will probably stay home and watch with them.... Or maybe it's that my favorite movies of the year (
Wall-E and
Iron Man) were shunted to the side.
At any rate, I thought I'd at least weigh in on Oscar prognostications, since it is the season. (Our local supermarket has a ballot to fill out, with a big $25 gift card prize attached to it!) Then next week you all can come tell me where I messed up in my guesses. But if you use my guesses in your own office pool, I hereby absolve myself of all responsibility for your losses.

BEST PICTURE --
Slumdog Millionaire. Not even worth placing a back-up bet on any of the others.
BEST ANIMATED FILM:
Wall-E, an astonishing work of art which also should have been nominated for Best Picture. The fact that
Kung Fu Panda won the Annie (a) was shocking and (b) suggests that many of the voters watched their screeners instead of watching on the big screen.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE:
Man on Wire. But the docu categories are always hard to call because the Academy docu branch members tend to vote for their friends, regardless.
BEST FOREIGN FILM:
Waltz with Bashir seems to be the front runner, though I am hearing a lot of good things about
The Class in the last week or so.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY:
Slumdog Millionaire. I don't think any of the others stand a chance.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: It should be
Wall-E. But it won't be, because (a) the Academy is full of actors who feel nervous about movies in which actors don't appear onscreen; and (b) most non-writers think "writing" means "dialogue" and don't realize that, yes, every bit of
Wall-E was written. So here is where the PC vote will sweep
Milk to what will probably be its only win.
BEST DIRECTOR: Danny Boyle for
Slumdog Millionaire.
BEST ACTOR -- I'm calling Mickey Rourke. A great performance, and everyone loves the kind of comeback this would represent. I know many consider the front-runner to be Sean Penn for
Milk -- but I've heard from too many people that the shot of the
real Harvey Milk in the closing credits of the movie was so much more moving than Penn's entire performance, which says to me that if Penn wins, he wins for political and PC reasons, not for the performance.
BEST ACTRESS -- I'd like it to be Meryl Streep. I fear it will be Kate Winslet, who wants it so bad she just oozes desire and desperation in every appearance these days. And my fear that she will win is not because she's a bad actress, but because I dread her emo acceptance speech.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR -- Heath Ledger. I hope the other nominees have been working on their grave "He-deserved-it-more-than-me" facial expressions (Robert Downey, Jr. had this down pat at the Golden Globes).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS -- Probably Penelope Cruz. But I don't really care.
ART DIRECTION --
The Dark Knight. The first of the "oops-maybe-this-should-have-had-a-Best-Picture-nom" awards.
CINEMATOGRAPHY --
Slumdog Millionaire. Worthy nominees, all. But the camerawork was really pretty special here, and I think we're going to see a mini-sweep.
COSTUME DESIGN -- Harder to call than you'd think. Usually the Academy goes for period pieces, which gives it to
The Duchess. But the PC pull of
Milk could give it a win here.
EDITING --
Slumdog Millionaire. Really a feat to pull off the triple storylines and fractured time without losing anyone in the audience along the way.
MAKE-UP -- A surprisingly tough category to call.
Hellboy probably should win it.
Benjamin Button, however, is more a "traditional" Oscar nominee, and highly dependent on its make-up effects working seamlessly. If
Button *doesn't* win this category, then I'd expect the movie to be skunked, despite its 13 nominations.
Dark Knight could win it because of the "oops" factor again.
MUSIC (SCORE) -- It should be
Wall-E, which, as a near silent film, is dependent on its music in a way that no other movie this year is. It will probably be
Slumdog.
MUSIC (SONG) -- This is the bizarrest set of nominations of the year. Who even knew there were 2 songs in
Slumdog? And where is Bruce Springsteen? Where, for that matter, is a song from
High School Musical 3? Odd, odd, odd. I think this will have to go to
Wall-E, if only because the two
Slumdog noms will split the vote.
SOUND EDITING -- This award is really about sound effects. I'd be happy to see
Wall-E win (anything). My sound editor friend tells me to bet on
Dark Knight, though.
SOUND MIXING -- The
Slumdog mini-sweep continues.
VISUAL EFFECTS --
Iron Man. It could go to
Dark Knight, as part of the "Oops" vote. But
Benjamin Button doesn't stand a chance.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT -- Now we're into the awards which often seem to exist only to break the tie in the office pool. I haven't seen or heard anything about any of these, so I'll say, whichever one is about (a) the Holocaust; (b) gay rights; or (c) civil rights, in that order.
ANIMATED SHORT --
Presto is the Pixar offering this year. I don't know if that hurts or helps it. Otherwise, I'd close my eyes and stab at the ballot.
LIVE ACTION SHORT -- I haven't seen any, but I've heard several good things about
Toyland.
...It's years like this that make me wish my dad was still alive, because he had an uncanny way of picking every winner most years, and all without having seen any of the movies. Anyway, good luck with your Oscar pools, and let me know where you disagree with my picks!